油价下跌！92号汽油有望重返6元时代，创下四年新低纪录【附石油化工产业链分析】

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic fuel price adjustment is expected to result in a significant decrease in gasoline and diesel prices, driven by a sharp decline in international crude oil prices and increased supply from OPEC+ [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 21, the crude oil price change rate has dropped to -7.93%, leading to an estimated reduction of approximately 320 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.24 to 0.27 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [2]. - If this price adjustment is realized, most regions in China will see 92-octane gasoline prices fall back into the "6 yuan range," marking the lowest level since 2021, with an annual cumulative decline exceeding 0.4 yuan per liter [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The primary factors contributing to the oil price drop include OPEC+'s new production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, which has disrupted the existing supply-demand balance, and the seasonal maintenance period for U.S. refineries, which has significantly reduced crude oil demand [2][3]. - The decline in crude oil prices is expected to lower refinery procurement costs, improve refining profits, and impact the entire petrochemical industry chain [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The current oil price drop primarily benefits the midstream refining sector, as lower crude costs and delayed adjustments in product prices expand profit margins for refineries, particularly for integrated large petrochemical companies like Sinopec and PetroChina [5]. - China's petrochemical industry has a comprehensive supply chain, with significant concentrations of companies in eastern regions like Shandong and Jiangsu, which are crucial for domestic oil production [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The return of 92-octane gasoline to the "6 yuan era" is anticipated to lower logistics costs across society and stimulate automotive consumption, contributing positively to economic growth and inflation control [9]. - However, the petrochemical industry faces long-term challenges, including overcapacity, the need for a green low-carbon transition, and the pursuit of technological self-sufficiency [9].