金价止跌，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌幅收窄至0.68%

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant fluctuations since the beginning of 2023, with recent price movements indicating a potential for continued volatility despite long-term support for gold prices [1][5]. Price Movements - As of October 23, 2023, COMEX gold futures prices turned upward, with related ETFs showing signs of recovery after previous declines [1]. - The 华夏 gold ETF (518850) narrowed its decline to 0.68%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 1.04%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) increased by 0.62% [1]. Historical Volatility - The gold market has experienced four significant periods of volatility over the past three years, each characterized by notable drawdowns: - First period: December 1, 2023, to February 14, 2024, lasting 51 trading days with a maximum drawdown of 7.64% [2]. - Second period: April 22, 2024, to June 26, 2024, lasting 46 trading days with a maximum drawdown of 6.11% [3]. - Third period: October 30, 2024, to December 18, 2024, lasting 36 trading days with a maximum drawdown of 9.29% [4]. - Fourth period: April 22, 2025, to August 19, 2025, lasting 84 trading days with a maximum drawdown of 11.01% [5]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Analysts suggest that gold price fluctuations may become a norm due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the dollar's rebound amid de-dollarization trends, which still provide strong support for gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment value of gold remains robust, with recommendations for long-term investors to gradually accumulate positions during price dips [5]. Performance Metrics - As of October 22, 2025, the 华夏 gold ETF has shown impressive performance metrics since its inception: - Highest single-month return of 11.49% - Longest consecutive monthly gains of 6 months - Maximum cumulative gain of 16.34% - Monthly gain/loss ratio of 41/24, with an average monthly return of 3.32% - Annual profit percentage of 75.00% - Monthly profit probability of 62.99% - Historical three-year holding profit probability of 99.51% [5].