首次公开展出新型巡航导弹，乌克兰导弹改进局限性明显

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine has publicly showcased its new cruise missile "Neptun-d," which is an upgraded version of the existing Neptun missile, aimed at enhancing missile technology performance and expanding operational capabilities during wartime [1][3]. Design Improvements - The Neptun-d missile features significant design changes, including large fairings on both sides of the missile body, effectively doubling its maximum width and increasing internal volume. This design is speculated to enhance fuel storage for extended flight range and allow for heavier warheads to improve damage effectiveness [3]. - The missile is equipped with a turbojet engine for subsonic flight, with a claimed range of several hundred kilometers. It retains the original control system of inertial navigation combined with terminal radar guidance, ensuring stable navigation and guidance [3]. Performance Limitations - Despite improvements, the Neptun-d missile still lags behind international counterparts in several aspects. The basic Neptun model has a publicly stated range of approximately 300 kilometers, with the Neptun-d potentially reaching 400-500 kilometers, which remains significantly lower than advanced missiles like the AGM-158C LRASM with ranges exceeding 555 kilometers and the new LRASM1.1 with a range of 1000 kilometers [6]. - The guidance system of Neptun-d is considered single-mode and vulnerable to interference, as it relies on a combination of inertial navigation and terminal radar, which is less effective in environments with strong electromagnetic interference compared to newer missiles that utilize composite guidance systems [6]. - The missile's survivability is also questioned, as it maintains a subsonic flight profile without significant stealth features, making it susceptible to interception by enemy radar systems before reaching its target [7]. Systemic Challenges - The Neptun-d represents a "small steps, quick runs" approach to technological improvement, highlighting systemic shortcomings in Ukraine's missile industry. Unlike projects with complete domestic supply chains, Ukraine's missile development heavily relies on imported components and technology, particularly in critical areas like engines and smart guidance systems [10]. - The lack of comprehensive support systems, such as electronic countermeasures and multi-wave saturation attacks, limits the missile's effectiveness in highly defended environments. Additionally, budget constraints hinder long-term technological iterations and system innovations [10]. Future Implications - The Neptun-d missile's development reflects the urgent need for Ukraine to enhance its weaponry amid ongoing conflict. While it may provide limited improvements in long-range strike capabilities, its overall effectiveness against well-defended targets remains constrained [12]. - The future of missile development should focus on integrating weapons into a comprehensive operational framework, emphasizing autonomous innovation and system integration to maintain a competitive edge in military engagements [11][12].