贝莱德：看好美股增长，2025年盈余预增近11%

Core Insights - The report by BlackRock indicates a strong start for Q3 earnings in the US stock market, with expected revenue growth of nearly 11% [1] - The attractiveness of US equities is bolstered by resilience, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the AI investment boom, despite renewed US-China trade tensions [1] - BlackRock maintains an overweight position on US equities while emphasizing the need for sector selection and close monitoring of AI spending effectiveness and tariff impacts [1] Market Background - US stocks experienced a brief decline due to regional bank credit concerns but quickly rebounded [1] - Gold prices reached new highs, and US Treasury yields hit a six-month low [1] - The US President's proposal for 100% tariffs on China led to significant single-day declines in the stock market, but market sentiment stabilized with clearer meeting paths and expectations of eased auto tariffs [1] Earnings Outlook - Analysts have revised the 2025 S&P 500 overall earnings growth forecast from 9% to nearly 11% [1] - Three key growth drivers identified: strong US resilience with GDP growth projected at 1.5%, policy easing allowing for potential Fed rate cuts, and increased AI-related spending [1] - Earnings growth for the "seven tech giants" is projected at 14% year-over-year for Q3, while other S&P 500 companies are expected to see 7.8% growth, indicating a narrowing gap [1] Sector Analysis - The financial sector is expected to benefit from regulatory easing, with projected earnings growth of 16% [1] - Companies are managing tariff impacts through inventory adjustments and price pass-through, though industries reliant on imports, like appliances, may face pressure [1] - European corporate earnings are lagging, with 2025 earnings growth expectations revised down from nearly 3% to 0.5% due to a strong euro and reduced tariff demand [1] Investor Focus - Investors are looking ahead to the delayed September CPI data, set to be released on October 24, which will provide insights into inflation persistence and assist in evaluating the Fed's rate cut path [1] - BlackRock emphasizes the importance of careful selection in trade policy and AI investments while acknowledging that past performance is not indicative of future results [1]