百利好丨美联储突遭“断供”！10月降息预期升高

Group 1 - ADP Research has suspended providing its employment data series to the Federal Reserve, which previously covered about 20% of the private sector employment in the U.S. This suspension is expected to widen the information gap for the Fed ahead of key monetary policy meetings [1] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, with a strong market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of this rate cut has reached 96.7% according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Despite the interruption of key economic indicators, market expectations for a loose monetary policy continue to strengthen, with a recent survey indicating that 115 out of 117 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% [3] Group 2 - If the rate cut occurs as expected, it may lead to downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, affecting the prices of dollar-denominated assets like gold [4] - A loose monetary environment is likely to provide liquidity support for global risk assets [4] - The ongoing public calls from the White House for larger rate cuts may challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4]