10.22纯碱日评：纯碱行情暂无实质性突破

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a stable yet fluctuating trend, with prices remaining steady across various regions, but overall market sentiment is low due to weak demand from downstream enterprises [2]. Price Analysis - As of October 22, the mainstream prices for light soda ash in North China are between 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are between 1180-1320 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash prices range from 1320-1430 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1300-1390 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on October 22 is 1162.86, a decrease of 1.43 from the previous working day, reflecting a -0.12% change. The heavy soda ash price index remains stable at 1210 [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1211 CNY/ton and closed at 1223 CNY/ton on October 22, showing a daily increase of 1.33%. The highest price during the day was 1230 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 1205 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,390,463 contracts, a decrease of 924 contracts [5]. - The slight rebound in soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by a strong rebound in oil prices, which has improved overall sentiment in the chemical sector. However, the soda ash market lacks substantial driving factors and is expected to follow market fluctuations [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is still in an adjustment phase, with supply-demand conflicts not effectively alleviated. In the absence of substantial positive support, the market is likely to maintain a stable yet fluctuating pattern, with limited price movement expected. Close attention should be paid to changes in downstream purchasing rhythms and the impact of policy factors on market sentiment [6].