日本央行拉响警报：股市出现过热迹象！

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated early signs of overheating in the Japanese stock market and warned that uncertainties in U.S. trade policy could lead to significant market corrections, impacting financial institutions [2] - The Nikkei 225 index has surged nearly 24% this year, reaching a historical high following the election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who supports fiscal stimulus [2] - The BOJ's semiannual Financial System Report highlights increased leverage and participation of foreign hedge funds in Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), which may exacerbate market volatility [2][3] Market Conditions - The Financial System Report includes a "heat map" visualizing asset price imbalances, showing that stock prices are in the "red" zone, indicating overheating, while other asset categories remain stable [3] - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor risk asset price trends, particularly in the stock market, due to the BOJ's exposure to market risks [4] - Japanese real estate prices, especially in major urban areas, are rising due to demand from foreign investors, with new apartment prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area increasing by 20.4% year-on-year from April to September [4] Financial Stability - Despite the concerns, the BOJ asserts that the overall Japanese financial system remains stable, with strong bank capital bases and stable funding sources capable of withstanding various risks [4] - The BOJ continues to monitor signals of financial imbalances that could lead to a financial crisis, such as asset price bubbles and excessive credit expansion [4] - Critics argue that the BOJ's prolonged ultra-low interest rates and weak yen have lowered the cost for foreign investors, contributing to rising asset and real estate prices [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need for caution in future interest rate hikes due to uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [5] - A recent Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the BOJ to raise interest rates again in the fourth quarter, potentially as early as next week [5]