Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-10-23 09:16Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that after a rapid increase in gold prices, a phase of adjustment and volatility may occur, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2][6]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the recent drop in gold prices is the cooling of risk aversion sentiment due to potential developments in the Ukraine crisis [1]. - The current gold price cycle (from November 2022 to October 2025) shows a steep and rapid increase, with a return of 163.66% from a low of $1628.75/oz to a peak of $4294.35/oz, significantly exceeding the average return of 96.1% in similar historical periods [2]. - Historical data suggests that previous gold price increases have experienced mid-cycle adjustments, yet they ultimately maintained a long-term upward trend [2][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - High volatility is identified as a core reason for the recent short-term drop in gold prices, with gold's volatility level surpassing that of both oil and U.S. stocks [4]. - The speed of price recovery after corrections has accelerated, indicating a stronger influence of short-term liquidity on market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Even if the Ukraine crisis subsides, global economic and trade unilateralism will continue to support gold prices in the long term, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The fundamental logic supporting a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices remains valid as long as the global shortage of safe-haven assets and the depreciation of U.S. dollar credit persist [7].