君諾外匯：日元的平衡之道

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has become a macroeconomic fault line, influenced by the Federal Reserve's easing policies and Japan's political push under new leadership to restart Abenomics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY jumped to 153.27, marking the largest opening increase in 35 years, before falling to 149.40 due to risk aversion from the US credit crisis [1] - The critical level of 149.38 nearly touched the 61.8% retracement level post-election, acting as a significant support line in the forex market [1] - The current trading level of USD/JPY is around 151.40, caught between macroeconomic beliefs and political influences [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - If the Federal Reserve significantly cuts interest rates, the yield gap will narrow, potentially weakening the dollar [3] - The new finance minister, May, may attempt to combine bold fiscal spending with stable currency management, contingent on cooperation from the Bank of Japan [3] - The combination of domestic expansion and external stability could lead to a reasonable USD/JPY value between 140-130 [3] Group 3: Trading Behavior - Many investors, including hedge funds, were shorting USD/JPY before the elections but were forced to cover their positions after the gap up, leading to a shift in sentiment [4] - The correlation between USD/JPY and the US-Japan two-year yield spread has reversed to -0.54, indicating a decoupling of forex and interest rates [4] - Traders are now relying on structural indicators rather than confidence to navigate the market [4] Group 4: Current Market Sentiment - Despite the USD rising above 151, traders in Tokyo are quietly favoring yen-positive risk reversal operations rather than chasing arbitrage [5] - The current state of USD/JPY reflects a lack of clear direction and confidence, with each trade resembling navigation rather than momentum [5] - The credit market's tension has eased, leading to a slight hawkish repricing by the Federal Reserve, which has helped stabilize the dollar [6]