沐曦股份IPO上会：高性能GPU光环下的三大隐忧

Core Insights - Muxi Co., Ltd. is facing significant challenges as it prepares for its IPO on the STAR Market, highlighted by a cumulative loss of 3.29 billion yuan over three years and a reliance on a single product for over 97% of its revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has exhibited a "high investment, high loss" financial profile, with cumulative losses reaching 3.29 billion yuan from 2022 to Q1 2025, peaking at 1.409 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - Revenue surged from 426,400 yuan in 2022 to 743 million yuan in 2024, yet this revenue only accounted for 53% of the losses incurred during the same period [2]. - Operating cash flow has been persistently negative, with a total outflow of 4.51 billion yuan from 2022 to Q1 2025, including a single-year outflow of 2.148 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. Product Dependency and Pricing Power - Muxi's revenue structure is heavily dependent on the Xiyun C500 series, which constituted 97.87% of total revenue in Q1 2025, a sharp increase from 30.09% in 2023 [3]. - The average selling price of the GPU boards has declined from 56,900 yuan to 38,900 yuan from 2023 to Q1 2025, representing a 31.6% drop, indicating a lack of pricing power in a competitive market [3]. - The company faces significant product iteration pressures, with new chip designs taking 2-3 years to develop, while AI model technologies evolve every 3-6 months [3]. Competitive Landscape - Muxi operates in a highly competitive environment dominated by NVIDIA, which held a 70% market share in China's AI chip market in 2024 [4]. - Despite U.S. export controls creating opportunities for domestic GPU manufacturers, NVIDIA's tailored H20 chip for the Chinese market poses a threat to local firms [4]. - Domestic competition is fierce, with Muxi competing against other local players like Haiguang Information and Moore Threads, all vying for a limited market share [4]. Customer Concentration and Technology Sources - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for 88.35% of sales in Q1 2025, raising concerns about revenue independence [5]. - The core technology team includes members with backgrounds at AMD, a direct competitor, which could pose potential risks in terms of intellectual property disputes [5]. Industry Challenges and Muxi's Path Forward - Muxi's struggles reflect broader challenges faced by domestic GPU companies, including how to achieve a commercial breakthrough amid technological lag and weak ecosystems [6]. - The company plans to leverage CUDA compatibility to reduce user migration costs, but building a robust software ecosystem is a long-term endeavor [6]. - The upcoming IPO aims to raise 3.9 billion yuan primarily for new chip development, but the high failure rate in chip R&D raises questions about the effectiveness of these investments [6].