每日机构分析：10月23日

Core Insights - The direction of inflation changes in the U.S. may cause concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields signals a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - U.S. inflation rate in September is expected to reach a 17-month high [3] Inflation Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and expected to show rapid growth in September [1] - The overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are anticipated to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [1][3] - The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with the overall price index expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. investors predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in meetings on October 29 and December 10, with a nearly 97% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October [2] - The European Central Bank is expected to reiterate its September stance in the upcoming October meeting, indicating stability in its policy [4] - The Bank of Korea appears less dovish, with expectations of a potential rate cut in November [5] Currency and Exchange Rate Projections - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy [3] - The Indonesian central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, maintaining a cautious stance amid global uncertainties [5]