美国国债突破38万亿美元！每个美国人背债11.4万，球为何越滚越大

Core Points - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, equating to approximately $114,000 per person, including newborns [1][3] - The rapid increase in debt is alarming, with a rise from $36 trillion in December to $37 trillion by July, and an additional $1 trillion in just over two months [3][4] - Michael Peterson warns that this trend signals serious risks to economic stability and raises questions about the sustainability of U.S. finances [3][4] Debt Dynamics - National debt is likened to a large household budget, with the government facing rigid expenditures such as social security, healthcare, and interest on national debt [4][5] - The U.S. government is experiencing a significant increase in mandatory spending, particularly in social security and Medicare, which are projected to consume over one-third of the federal budget [7][9] - Rising interest rates have exacerbated the situation, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, nearly double the amount during the pandemic when rates were near zero [7][9] Revenue vs. Expenditure - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that tax revenue will remain around 17.5% of GDP over the next decade, while expenditures are expected to rise to 23.6% [9][12] - The disparity between spending and revenue is widening, leading to increasing budget deficits and a growing national debt [9][12] Economic Implications - The escalating debt could lead to a "crowding out" effect, where more government revenue is allocated to debt repayment and welfare, reducing investments in education, research, and infrastructure [11][12] - Potential inflation and financial instability could arise if investor confidence in U.S. fiscal management wanes, leading to rising interest rates and a depreciating dollar [14][16] Geopolitical Consequences - The debt issue is eroding U.S. global influence, as a financially constrained nation may be less agile in international affairs and strategic competition [16][18] - The long-term neglect of the debt problem is undermining the U.S.'s institutional advantages, posing risks to its economic foundation [16][18] Political Challenges - Political polarization hampers effective solutions to the debt crisis, with Democrats favoring tax increases and Republicans advocating for spending cuts [18][20] - Previous reform attempts, such as the Simpson-Bowles Commission's mixed approach, have failed due to political resistance, making future reforms unlikely [20][22] - The U.S. faces a critical juncture, with the potential for either strong economic growth to alleviate debt or a market crisis forcing political leaders to confront the issue [20][22] Conclusion - The surpassing of $38 trillion in national debt marks a critical risk zone for U.S. finances, driven by rigid spending, rising interest burdens, and stagnant revenue [22][24] - Without significant political reform, the consequences of continued short-sighted fiscal policies will impact not only American citizens but also the global economy [24]