贪心砸了饭碗？巴西硬抬价，中国 130 万吨大豆瞬间流向阿根廷！

Core Viewpoint - The international soybean market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, with China shifting its imports from the U.S. to Brazil and then to Argentina due to rising prices from Brazilian exporters [1][3][40]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From May to September, China ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a record low of zero imports in November 2018 [3][17]. - Brazil's soybean exports to China surged to 71.6% from January to August this year [5]. - Brazilian exporters raised prices significantly, with prices per bushel exceeding Chicago futures by $2.8 to $2.9, and the premium for soybeans at the Port of Paranaguá reaching $66.1 per ton, the highest in nearly four years [4][7]. Group 2: China's Response - In mid-October, multiple Chinese companies collectively halted purchases of Brazilian soybeans scheduled for December, indicating a strategic decision rather than a spontaneous reaction [13][40]. - China has developed two key strategies to lower prices: expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in Brazil for the 2024-2025 season and progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [15][19]. - China's soybean reserves are robust, with over 200 million tons stored in the northeast alone, allowing for price stabilization through strategic releases [17][19]. Group 3: Argentina's Opportunity - Argentina secured a substantial order of 130 million tons from China, equivalent to several months of its usual export volume, due to a significant reduction in export taxes from 26% to 0% [26][28]. - The timing of Argentina's price competitiveness coincided with China's need to fill a supply gap from November to January [30][40]. - Argentina's proactive measures to regain market share, combined with favorable policy changes, allowed it to capitalize on Brazil's pricing strategy [34][40]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The shift in soybean orders reflects a changing global food trade landscape, emphasizing that no supplier is indispensable and that fair trade practices are essential for long-term relationships [40][42]. - China's diversified import channels and strategic reserves enhance its negotiating power and ability to manage supply chain risks [42][44].