油价跌拉低通胀！美债因避险和降息预期涨，股市还跟涨挺少见

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in oil prices may lead to lower inflation and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could bring the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down to 3.75% [1][9][25] Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI falling from $80 per barrel at the beginning of the year to below $58 recently, indicating a serious oversupply issue [3][6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [16][23] - U.S. shale oil production has increased by 8% year-on-year, further easing supply constraints [13][21] Inflation and Economic Impact - Lower oil prices directly reduce consumer inflation, as energy accounts for approximately 7% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. A $10 drop in WTI could lower the CPI by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points [9][23] - The current economic environment is characterized as a "Goldilocks" market, where moderate economic growth keeps oil prices down without triggering a recession [6][9] Treasury Yield Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased, with a notable drop of 17 basis points this month, currently around 3.98% [3][11] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November rising from 35% to 72% [11][25] Supply and Demand Outlook - Global oil inventories are increasing, with a daily rise of 1.9 million barrels, although China's stockpiling has mitigated some immediate price impacts [20][21] - The EIA forecasts a supply increase of 2.2 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries by 2025, while global demand is expected to grow by only 700,000 barrels per day, widening the supply-demand gap [23] Market Considerations - The relationship between oil prices and Treasury yields remains a key factor in global asset allocation, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances likely to influence market trends [23][27] - Investors are advised to focus on supply data and Federal Reserve policy movements, as these will be critical in determining long-term market trajectories [27]