锚定10%高增长，越南的雄心与忧患｜东盟观察

Economic Growth Goals - Vietnam's government has set an ambitious GDP growth target of at least 10% by 2026, with an expected growth rate of 8% for this year, showcasing resilience despite external pressures [1][2] - The World Bank and IMF predict Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.6% and 6.5% respectively, while the GDP grew by 7.85% year-on-year in the first nine months of this year [1][2] Trade and Export Performance - Despite the looming impact of U.S. tariffs, Vietnam's export performance remains strong, with a total import-export volume of $597.93 billion in the first eight months, a 16.3% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Vietnam's trade surplus reached $28.54 billion in the first eight months, growing by 15.2% [3] Infrastructure Development - The Vietnamese government is focusing on strategic breakthroughs in key areas such as infrastructure, with plans to reduce the number of provinces from 63 to streamline administrative processes [4][5] - Significant investments are being made in transportation and logistics infrastructure, with expectations that these projects will contribute 18% to GDP this year [5][6] Foreign Investment and Economic Dependency - Vietnam's economic model heavily relies on foreign investment, with 63% of total investment in recent projects coming from private and foreign capital [6][9] - The country has been successful in attracting foreign direct investment, particularly in high-tech and renewable energy sectors, which supports its growth ambitions [3][9] Challenges and Risks - Vietnam faces challenges such as reliance on cheap labor, fluctuations in the real estate market, and potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies, which could threaten its export-driven growth model [2][10] - Structural issues within the economy include dependence on imported intermediate goods, rising financial risks, and a shortage of skilled labor, which could hinder industrial upgrades [11][12] Regional Cooperation and Trade Agreements - Vietnam is actively participating in global free trade agreements to reduce dependence on single markets and promote trade diversification [12] - The country benefits from regional cooperation initiatives, particularly with China, which supports infrastructure development and economic integration [12]