万腾外汇：英镑的下跌是否仍未见底？

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is under pressure against the US dollar as the market increasingly believes that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a more accommodative monetary policy stance for a longer period compared to the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent UK inflation data shows a significant cooling of price pressures, effectively eliminating market expectations for further rate hikes by the BoE [1] - The UK services and manufacturing sectors are experiencing contraction, with PMI indices falling below the 50.0 threshold, indicating a potential economic recession in Q4 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - Federal Reserve officials continue to adopt a hawkish tone, suggesting that US interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period, enhancing the appeal of the US dollar as a high-yield safe-haven asset [1] - The anticipated pause in the BoE's tightening cycle due to economic slowdown and persistent cost pressures poses further risks for the British pound [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around the 1.3340 level, with indications that it may break this range and initiate a third wave of decline, targeting 1.3213 [4] - The broader bearish wave structure has a primary target near the 1.2963 area, supported by the MACD indicator confirming ongoing bearish momentum [4] - The H1 chart indicates the formation of a broader first phase of the third wave down, with a near-term target of 1.3276, followed by potential corrective rebounds before resuming the downward trend [6]