Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices has shifted market discussions towards whether gold will rebound and reach new highs, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by demand from central banks and institutional investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in over a decade, leading to debates on future price recovery [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that various long-term capital allocators, including sovereign wealth funds and central banks, are planning to increase their gold holdings as a strategic diversification tool [1] - JPMorgan's strategist team believes that the recent gold price drop was primarily due to profit-taking by trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs), rather than retail investors exiting gold ETFs [1][2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The surge in gold ETF purchases this year cannot be solely attributed to "devaluation trades" due to concerns over a weakening dollar; instead, there is a notable motivation to hedge against stock market risks [3] - Retail investors have been buying both stocks and gold while avoiding long-term bonds, which traditionally serve as a hedge against stock market risks [3] - The current allocation of gold by global non-bank investors stands at 2.6% of their total financial assets, suggesting that this ratio may still be too low if gold is to replace bonds as a hedge against stock risks [6] Group 3: Future Projections - JPMorgan's team hypothesizes that to increase the gold allocation from 2.6% to 4.6% by 2028, gold prices would need to rise by approximately 110% [8] - The assumption includes a projected increase in stock allocation to 54.6% and an annual increase of $7 trillion in the size of bonds and cash over the next three years [7][8]
散户对冲逻辑变了？小摩力挺黄金：未来三年金价或将翻倍！
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-10-23 12:14