回本周期拉长，闭店加剧，量贩零食争抢上岸

Core Insights - The snack retail industry is witnessing a competitive race for the title of the first snack stock, with two major brands, Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang, filing for IPOs within a short span of time [1] - Both companies have shown significant revenue growth, with Wancheng Group projecting revenues of 5.49 billion, 9.29 billion, and 32.33 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, while Mingming Hen Mang expects revenues of 4.29 billion, 10.30 billion, and 39.34 billion CNY in the same period [1] - The rapid expansion of these brands is marked by a high number of franchise stores, with Wancheng Group aiming for 15,365 stores and Mingming Hen Mang claiming over 20,000 stores by mid-2025 [1] Expansion Strategies - Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang have adopted aggressive expansion strategies, with Wancheng adding nearly 10,000 stores in just one year, averaging 26 new stores per day [3][4] - The companies rely heavily on franchise models, with Wancheng stating that 99.4% of its stores are franchises, indicating a high dependency on franchisee performance for revenue [4] Financial Performance - Both companies exhibit low profit margins compared to other sectors, with Mingming Hen Mang's gross margins ranging from 7.45% to 7.62% from 2022 to 2024, while Wancheng's gross margin is projected to be around 10.9% in 2024 [5] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to about 29 months, indicating increasing challenges in achieving profitability [7] Market Challenges - The snack retail market is becoming saturated, leading to increased competition and a decline in profitability for franchisees, with many reporting losses and closures [9][10] - Franchisees are facing difficulties in maintaining sales, with many unable to achieve the necessary monthly revenue to break even, leading to a rise in store closures [8][9] Industry Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift as brands explore new growth avenues, such as diversifying product offerings to include trendy items like blind boxes and collectibles [11] - There are indications that brands like Wancheng Group are considering transforming into comprehensive supermarket formats to adapt to changing market dynamics [11][12]