3 6 Ke·2025-10-23 12:26Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to significantly impact the A-share market, with investors speculating on its potential to either transform the market landscape or lead to a stable adjustment [3][24]. A-share Market Analysis Current Market Status - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating between 3000 and 4000 points, facing both upward attempts and downward pressures [4]. - Trading volumes are inconsistent, often spiking around major policy announcements or economic data releases, but declining during periods of market uncertainty [5]. Popular Sectors - The technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G, remains a focal point for investment, with companies in these areas seeing substantial stock price increases [6]. - The renewable energy sector, including solar power and electric vehicles, is also thriving due to policy support and market demand, with leading companies like BYD and Longi Green Energy expected to expand their market shares [11][12]. Historical Context Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - The A-share market has seen remarkable growth, with the number of listed companies surpassing 5000 and total market capitalization exceeding 90 trillion yuan, marking a growth of over 20% [7][8]. - The market has shifted towards new economy sectors, with over 90% of new listings during this period being technology-focused [8]. Market Resilience - The A-share market has demonstrated strong resilience against external shocks, with annualized volatility decreasing from 18.7% to 15.9% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [9]. Expected Policy Directions and Impacts Technology Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance support for technology innovation, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, which could lead to significant growth opportunities for related A-share companies [10]. Green Development - Policies promoting green development are likely to bolster the renewable energy sector, with companies in solar and electric vehicles expected to benefit from increased support and market expansion [11]. Domestic Consumption - The plan is anticipated to prioritize domestic consumption, potentially leading to new policies that stimulate consumer spending, which would positively impact consumer goods sectors [12]. State-Owned Enterprise Reform - Continued reforms in state-owned enterprises are expected to optimize resource allocation and improve operational efficiency, creating investment opportunities in related A-share companies [13]. Historical Policy Impact Examples - Historical cases demonstrate that policy changes can significantly influence market dynamics, as seen with the surge in M&A activity following new regulations and the market rally triggered by monetary policy adjustments [15][17][18]. Investment Strategies Monitoring Policy Developments - Investors are advised to closely follow policy announcements related to the "15th Five-Year Plan" to identify sectors that may benefit from government support [21]. Diversification - A diversified investment approach across various sectors and market capitalizations is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [22]. Focus on Fundamentals - Emphasizing long-term investments in companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential is crucial for navigating the A-share market effectively [23].