CNGR(SZ:300919) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-23 13:28Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant revenue growth driven by low-margin businesses, while its core high-margin product line is declining, raising concerns about long-term profitability and financial health [1][2][17]. Business Model and Structure - The company has established a vertically integrated supply chain from mineral resources to recycling, achieving a global market share of 21.8% in nickel-based pCAM by 2024, maintaining the top shipment volume for five consecutive years [1]. - The revenue from nickel-based materials has dropped from 81.2% in 2022 to 40.2% in 2024, while the share of revenue from new energy metals has surged from 0% to 33.5% during the same period, indicating a shift towards lower-margin businesses [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 402.23 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1%, primarily driven by the new energy metals segment, which saw a 298% increase in revenue [2]. - Net profit fell to 17.88 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 15.9% year-on-year, with further decline to 7.06 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 39% [2]. - The gross margin decreased from 13.4% in 2023 to 11.9% in the first half of 2025, while the net margin dropped from 6.1% to 3.3%, marking a three-year low [2]. Revenue Composition Changes - The revenue structure has shifted dramatically, with high-margin nickel-based materials dropping to 40.2% of total revenue in 2024, while low-margin new energy metals increased to 33.5% [3]. - The new energy metals segment, despite contributing 33.5% of revenue, has a gross margin of only 7.5%, significantly lower than the 19.9% margin of nickel-based materials [3]. Financial Health Indicators - The company's liquidity has deteriorated, with a current ratio of 1.4 and a quick ratio of 1.0 by the end of 2024, down from 1.9 and 1.3 in 2022 [4]. - As of June 2025, the company faces a funding gap of 170 billion yuan, with 266.94 billion yuan in short-term debt and only 96.5 billion yuan in cash and equivalents [4]. Customer and Supplier Risks - The concentration of customers remains high, with the top five customers contributing 34% of revenue, and four of these customers also being suppliers, raising concerns about pricing fairness [6]. - The company has significant transactions with related parties, with procurement from related entities exceeding 30% of total procurement, indicating potential risks of interest transfer [7]. Management and Governance - The controlling family holds over 60% of the company's shares, with a significant pay disparity among executives, raising questions about the fairness of the compensation structure [8]. - The company has seen a reduction in its core technical staff, with R&D expenditure declining from 3.1% to 2.8% of revenue, below the industry average of 3.5% [8]. Industry Comparison - Compared to industry leaders, the company has a gross margin that lags behind by 6.5 percentage points, and its R&D spending is significantly lower than competitors [9]. - The company's capacity utilization for nickel-based materials is only 60.4%, indicating inefficiencies in asset utilization compared to peers [9]. Key Risks - The rise of LFP batteries is significantly impacting the market for nickel-based materials, with a compound annual decline in revenue for nickel-based materials of 12.4% [10]. - Regulatory changes in Indonesia pose compliance risks, and the company faces potential penalties and operational disruptions due to environmental violations [11]. - Fluctuations in nickel prices have led to a 31% decline over three years, adversely affecting profit margins [12]. - The company’s overseas expansion efforts are hampered by low capacity utilization and geopolitical risks, particularly in Morocco [13]. - The imposition of a 20% tariff on Chinese new energy battery materials by the U.S. could lead to order shifts and indirect revenue losses [15]. - The phosphorous materials segment has been consistently unprofitable, with a gross margin of -10.4% in 2024, raising doubts about its strategic value [16].