美国对俄挥出制裁“重拳”，油价应声大涨超5%！

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the supply from one of the world's top oil producers [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The U.S. has blacklisted major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, causing market fears that India, a key buyer, may reduce its purchases from Moscow [4][5]. - The sanctions represent a significant escalation in U.S. pressure on Moscow, potentially leading to major disruptions in Russian oil production and exports [5][6]. - The European Union has also imposed additional sanctions targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including a complete trading ban on Russian oil companies [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite signs of oversupply in the oil market, the sanctions could have a substantial impact, particularly as India imports over one-third of its oil from Russia [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, indicating a potential buffer against the sanctions [6]. - Recent data shows that Russian oil exports have reached a 29-month high, suggesting that Russia has experience in circumventing sanctions [6][8]. Group 3: Price Movements - Brent crude prices have rebounded from a five-month low, with both WTI and Brent crude experiencing over a 4% increase, marking the largest rise since the Israel-Iran conflict began [1][9]. - The spread between near-term and longer-term Brent futures has narrowed due to concerns about potential oversupply, but recent price movements indicate a tightening market [8][9]. - Analysts expect Brent crude to trade within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, reflecting a shift in market sentiment from oversupply concerns to potential supply disruptions [9].