Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-23 13:59Core Viewpoint - Vanke is facing a severe financial crisis, marked by significant losses and a deteriorating relationship with its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, amid a challenging real estate market [1][8][15]. Financial Performance - Vanke reported a record net loss of 497.78 billion yuan for 2024, indicating the most severe financial crisis since its listing [8]. - In the first half of 2025, Vanke's revenue fell by 26.2% to 1,053.2 billion yuan, with a net loss of 119.47 billion yuan, a 21.25% increase in losses year-on-year [9]. - The company's total liabilities reached 872.99 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 90.38%, reflecting a 9.78 percentage point increase since the beginning of the year [10]. Debt and Cash Flow Issues - Vanke's cash flow is under severe pressure, with over 1 trillion yuan in short-term debt due within a year, while cash reserves are only around 800 billion yuan [3][10]. - The company has a cash-to-short-term debt ratio below the safety threshold of 1, indicating a critical liquidity issue [10]. Relationship with Shenzhen Metro Group - Shenzhen Metro Group, Vanke's largest shareholder, has provided over 200 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, but is now facing its own financial difficulties, reporting a net loss of 33.61 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The partnership, once seen as mutually beneficial, is now fraught with challenges, as Vanke's stock price has plummeted below 10 yuan, leading to significant losses for Shenzhen Metro [12][13]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with Vanke's sales dropping to less than 20% of peak levels, representing an 80% decline [5][11]. - The overall market conditions have led to a drastic reduction in project settlement areas and historically low profit margins, further exacerbating Vanke's financial woes [9]. Strategic Responses - Vanke is attempting to self-rescue through asset disposals, business transformation, and technological empowerment, but faces significant challenges in adapting to the broader market downturn [15][16]. - The future of Vanke may depend on the strategic decisions made by Shenzhen Metro Group regarding continued financial support or potential restructuring of their relationship [13][16].