黄金年内连创新高后迎调整，现在还能上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 is experiencing a remarkable surge, with London gold prices rising over 56% year-to-date, reaching new highs, but a recent sharp decline has raised questions about the sustainability of this trend [1][3][10]. Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of October 22, 2025, the London gold price started at $2,650 per ounce and peaked at $4,381.48, with a year-to-date increase of 56.55% and an annualized return of 70.93% [3]. - On October 21, 2025, gold prices experienced a significant drop of 6.3%, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Institutional Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, institutions maintain a long-term optimistic outlook, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [4]. Key Drivers of Gold Price Increase 1. Central Bank Purchases: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been accumulating gold, with a net purchase of 1,037.4 tons in 2023, representing 21.2% of total demand, and this trend is expected to continue [7]. 2. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, including a potential 100 basis point rate cut by mid-2026, are expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [8]. 3. Safe-Haven and Inflation Hedge Demand: Geopolitical risks and inflation concerns have reinforced gold's dual role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, leading to robust demand [9]. Short-Term Adjustments - The recent price correction is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift, providing a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [10][11]. - Historical trends indicate that a 5%-10% correction is common during a strong upward trend, suggesting that the current pullback may be a consolidation phase [12]. Investment Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to view gold as a risk management tool rather than a short-term speculative asset, focusing on long-term allocation [15]. - Gold ETFs, such as the South China Gold ETF (code: 159834), are recommended for their convenience and lower costs compared to physical gold or futures [16][17]. - A systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging or incremental buying during price dips, is suggested to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [18]. Conclusion - The gold market's fundamentals remain strong despite recent price adjustments, with key drivers like central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions still in play. Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term strategies and utilize accessible investment vehicles like gold ETFs to capitalize on the ongoing market dynamics [19].