How Will Ozempic and Wegovy Sales Aid NVO's Upcoming Q3 Results?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) is a leading player in the cardiometabolic market, primarily driven by the strong sales of its semaglutide-based drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, which generated DKK 101.41 billion in the first half of 2025, accounting for approximately 65% of total sales [1] Group 1: Product Performance and Market Dynamics - Ozempic and Wegovy have received multiple label expansions to enhance patient access and increase demand, with Wegovy now approved for reducing major cardiovascular events and easing symptoms of HFpEF and osteoarthritis-related knee pain [2] - Despite the strong sales performance, sales of Ozempic and Wegovy are expected to face pressure in Q3 2025 due to slower-than-expected U.S. momentum and competition from unregulated compounded semaglutide products [3] - The growth of Wegovy has been below expectations due to limited market expansion and rising competition, while Ozempic's growth has moderated amid intensified rivalry in the U.S. diabetes market [3] Group 2: Additional Revenue Streams - Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide therapy Rybelsus, along with its insulin franchise and Rare Disease portfolio, is anticipated to have contributed positively to overall revenues during the period [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly (LLY) is a significant competitor in the diabetes and obesity market, with its tirzepatide-based drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, generating combined sales of $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025, representing 52% of LLY's total revenues [5] - Lilly is expected to report strong financial results driven by robust demand for its GLP-1 drugs and expanding market presence [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Novo Nordisk shares have declined by 37.9%, underperforming the industry growth of 5.3% [8] - The company's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.96, lower than the industry average of 15.54, and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [11] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.83 to $3.66 per share over the past 60 days, indicating a downward trend in expectations [15]