美澳的稀土豪赌，为何专家直接泼了十年冷水？

Core Points - The signing of an $8.5 billion agreement between the U.S. and Australia aims to enhance the supply chain for critical minerals and rare earths, addressing concerns over reliance on China [1][3] - The agreement includes a commitment of over $1 billion from each country to initiate projects within six months, with the U.S. Department of Defense funding a gallium refinery in Western Australia [1][3] U.S.-Australia Cooperation - The U.S. and Australia plan to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects within six months, with an expected output value of $53 billion [3] - Australia ranks fourth globally in rare earth reserves and has significantly increased production in recent years, becoming the only country outside China to produce heavy rare earth elements [3][4] Challenges in Supply Chain Development - Experts express skepticism about the rapid improvement of the U.S. critical mineral supply, citing high energy costs, a shortage of technical talent, and environmental concerns as major obstacles [5][6] - Achieving self-sufficiency in gallium production is projected to take 5 to 10 years, requiring substantial investment [6] Economic Risks - A report from Goldman Sachs warns that a 10% disruption in industries reliant on rare earth elements could lead to a $150 billion loss for the U.S. economy [6] - The processing and refining costs of rare earth elements are high, contributing to China's continued dominance in the global market [6] Long-term Outlook - Experts believe that building a comprehensive rare earth supply chain will take 10 to 15 years, despite ongoing investments and policy support [8][10] - The rare earth competition is characterized as a long-term strategic battle involving time, technology, and patience [11]