Lilly Up 10% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company's stock has increased by 9.5% in a month, driven by a recovery in the pharma sector, with major players like Pfizer and AstraZeneca entering drug pricing agreements with the Trump administration [1][2][11] Company Performance - Lilly's top line is significantly supported by the strong growth of its diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly the GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together account for approximately 50% of the company's total revenues [4][5][11] - The company has committed over $50 billion for domestic manufacturing expansion, positioning itself for potential agreements with the U.S. government similar to those signed by Pfizer and AstraZeneca [2][11] Product Pipeline - Lilly is actively investing in its obesity pipeline, with several new molecules in clinical development, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which are expected to enhance its market position [7][8][9] - The company has received approvals for multiple new therapies, including Omvoh, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, and Kisunla, contributing to revenue growth [12][13] Market Dynamics - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, leading to increased competition, particularly from Novo Nordisk, which poses a challenge for Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound [14][18] - U.S. President Trump's indication of potential price cuts for GLP-1 drugs raises concerns about pricing pressures on Lilly's products, although formal negotiations have not yet begun [15][16] Financial Outlook - Lilly's stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 27.72, higher than the industry average of 15.54, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [23][29] - The company anticipates revenues between $60 billion and $62 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of over 30% [29]