Amazon's Profit Problem Could Be Masking Its Next Stock Rally

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc is the only stock among the Magnificent 7 experiencing a decline this year, with an EBIT margin of 11.37%, significantly lower than peers like Meta and Microsoft, raising concerns about its performance [1] Group 1: Profitability and Growth Segments - Amazon's low-margin retail business is overshadowing its high-growth segments such as AWS and advertising, which are driving robust expansion [3] - Amazon Web Services is benefiting from strong enterprise cloud demand and AI-driven workloads, contributing to its growth [3] - The advertising revenue is increasing over 20% year-on-year, operating at much higher margins than the retail segment [3] Group 2: Valuation Perspective - Amazon's forward EV/EBITDA is at 14.35x, significantly lower than Microsoft at 20.33x and Nvidia at 34.04x, indicating a compelling valuation [5] - The PEG ratio of 1.93 suggests that Amazon's growth potential is not fully reflected in its current stock price, as investors are primarily paying for growth in cloud and advertising rather than the low-margin retail business [5] Group 3: Market Perception and Earnings Impact - The structural contrast in Amazon's business model makes it unique among the Magnificent 7, with potential for outsized returns once market perception aligns with its growth segments [6] - The upcoming earnings release is critical, as investors will focus on AWS growth and advertising performance; any positive surprises could trigger a significant stock rally [7] - What appears as inefficiency in Amazon's financials is actually a strategic reinvestment in high-return areas, positioning it as a stock to watch closely within the Magnificent 7 [8]