Should You Buy Moderna Right Now?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna's stock has stabilized around $25 per share, but the company faces significant challenges due to declining COVID-19 vaccine revenues and ongoing cash burn issues [1][4][6]. Financial Overview - Moderna has a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion, which is only slightly above its book value of $9.4 billion. This includes $5 billion in cash and short-term investments, and $2.4 billion in liquid government and corporate bonds [3]. - The company's cash reserves have decreased from over $10.8 billion a year ago to $7.4 billion, primarily due to declining revenues from COVID-19 vaccine sales [4]. Revenue Projections - Analysts project a 41% decline in Moderna's revenue this year, dropping from $3.2 billion to $1.9 billion, with only a slight recovery expected by 2026 [4]. Product Pipeline and Market Performance - Most of Moderna's non-COVID vaccine candidates are still in clinical trials, with only one candidate, the RSV vaccine mRESVIA, having reached the market, generating only $6 million in sales last quarter [5][6]. - The ongoing cash burn and lack of significant product launches suggest that the company's net value is likely to continue declining [6][7].