帮主郑重：美股反弹200点藏暗线？贸易博弈+估值警报得盯紧

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market rebounded significantly, with the Nasdaq rising over 200 points, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1][3] - The S&P 500 companies have reported strong earnings, with 80% exceeding expectations, which is crucial for sustaining the current bull market [3] Trade Relations - President Trump announced that a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders is on the agenda, alleviating some market fears regarding trade tensions [3] - However, there are concerns about potential new restrictions on software exports from the U.S., which could impact various sectors [3] Oil Market - Oil prices surged over 5% due to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russian oil companies and liquefied natural gas [4] - India, which previously sourced oil from Russia, is now seeking alternatives from the Middle East, contributing to rising oil prices [4] Valuation Concerns - Analysts warn that U.S. stock valuations are at their second-highest level in a century, reminiscent of the late 1990s internet bubble [5] - Some companies' stock prices are based on projected earnings as far out as 2030 or 2035, indicating a potential disconnect from fundamental values [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is a prevailing expectation in the market for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite inflation concerns [5] - The core CPI is projected to remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, yet the anticipation of a rate cut is supporting investor optimism [5]