焦煤一周涨逾10%！原因是

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in coking coal futures prices, with the main contract rising over 10% since October 15, driven by supply concerns and reduced production from key regions [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Significant reduction in Mongolian coal production and customs clearance has raised supply concerns, with domestic coal mine operating rates declining [3]. - A recent report indicated that some coal mines in the Uihai region have ceased operations, affecting approximately 28.3 million tons of capacity, further tightening supply expectations for Q4 [3]. - The overall supply-demand balance has shifted to a tight equilibrium, with prices remaining strong despite recent increases in futures prices [3][4]. Production Statistics - As of October 22, coal mine capacity utilization was reported at 85.1%, down 2.3 percentage points week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons week-on-week [4]. - Raw coal inventories decreased by 183,000 tons to 4.431 million tons, while premium coal production also saw a decline [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The trading logic in the coking coal market is shifting from production recovery and weak steel demand to improved macro expectations and policy support [5]. - Anticipation of price increases in coking coal and coke, with potential for further price hikes as downstream steel mills prepare for winter stockpiling [5]. - Analysts expect the upward trend in coking coal prices to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [5].