豆粕期货价格显著反弹，预期有变？

Group 1 - Recent decline in soybean meal futures prices, with the main contract dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, a 10% decrease from mid-August highs, followed by a 2.3% rebound [1] - Analysts indicate that the price trend of soybean meal futures is diverging from U.S. soybeans, with limited positive support in the domestic market due to high inventory levels [4][5] - China's soybean imports reached 8619 million tons in the first three quarters, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in imports from May to September [4] Group 2 - The fourth quarter is expected to see a gradual decline in soybean imports, with total arrivals projected at 2460 million tons, below the estimated crushing volume [5] - Market concerns about supply gaps in Q1 2024 have diminished, partly due to Argentina's temporary tax exemption policy allowing for the purchase of 300 million tons of soybeans [5][6] - Key variables to monitor include the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, potential adjustments in USDA reports, and the ongoing La Niña phenomenon which may impact South American soybean yields [6]