豆粕期货价格显著反弹 预期有变？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in soybean meal futures prices indicate a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by international trade negotiations and domestic inventory levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Soybean meal futures prices have recently declined, with the main 2601 contract dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, a 10% decrease from mid-August highs, but rebounded by 2.3% in the latest session [1]. - The Chinese soybean import volume for the first three quarters reached 86.19 million tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a significant 15% surge from May to September [2]. - Domestic soybean meal inventories remain high despite a 9% increase in apparent consumption, leading to downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fourth quarter is expected to see a gradual decline in imported soybean volumes, with total arrivals projected at 24.6 million tons, below the estimated crushing capacity of 27 million tons [3]. - The current high inventory levels, with soybean stocks at 7.687 million tons (up 27.49% year-on-year) and soybean meal stocks at 976,200 tons (up 4.16% year-on-year), are suppressing spot prices [2][3]. - Market expectations regarding supply shortages in Q1 of the following year have diminished, partly due to Argentina's temporary tax exemption policy allowing for the purchase of approximately 3 million tons of soybeans [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the short-term outlook for soybean meal prices remains weak, potential tightening of supply in early next year could support prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the resumption of USDA reports which may adjust yield estimates, and the ongoing La Niña phenomenon that could impact South American soybean production [4].