氧化铝 短期价格仍承压

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 75% of total imports [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating ample supply [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - As of October 17, domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - Domestic alumina inventory reached 4.639 million tons as of October 17, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from the end of September but down $45 from the end of August, reflecting weaker overseas pricing [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton as of October 3, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation is that as alumina prices continue to decline, smelting losses may occur, particularly in high-cost regions, potentially leading to voluntary production cuts [3][6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The alumina market is expected to remain under pressure due to ample supply, high operating capacity, and increasing registered warehouse receipts, which are significantly higher than the same period last year [8] - Short-term alumina prices are unlikely to recover, with a focus on smelting cost support and the potential for production cuts if smelting profits enter a loss zone [8]