近期债市呈现逐步回暖，关注十年国债ETF（511260）

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent signs of recovery in the bond market are observed, supported by both fundamental and policy factors [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to present allocation opportunities in medium to long-term bonds, particularly the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1][7] - Despite poor financial data released in July, the bond market's reaction was muted, indicating that investors had already priced in weak fundamentals [1] Group 2: Tariff and Trade Dynamics - The evolution of tariffs remains a key variable, with Trump's threat of a 100% tariff on China being a significant concern, although market reactions differ from previous instances [2][4] - The expectation is that the U.S. and China will eventually negotiate, with a possibility of canceling new tariffs similar to the situation in May [2] - The U.S. is likely to target specific goods for tariffs, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors, which could have a substantial impact on exports and the economy [4] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Domestic demand remains weak, with new loans recovering only to normal levels after hitting a low in July [4] - The financing and social financing are primarily supported by government bonds, which may weaken as the peak of government bond issuance passes [4] - The impact of anti-involution policies on the economy is complex, potentially limiting new credit demand and creating pressure on macroeconomic totals [5] Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's liquidity easing remains unchanged, but the degree of easing is limited, with recent signs of a slight reduction in short-term interest rates [7] - The current technical indicators show bullish signals, suggesting that the 10-year government bond has attractive value for investors [7] - The bond market's sensitivity to both positive and negative factors has shifted, with current pressures expected to create opportunities in the fourth quarter [6]