供需两旺 碳酸锂尝试向上突破

Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures prices reached the lowest point since July 2023 in late June 2025, with fluctuations influenced by "anti-involution" policies and production halts in Ningde Times [1] - Supply of lithium carbonate is growing rapidly, with domestic production in September reaching 87,260 tons, a 2% month-on-month increase and a 52% year-on-year increase [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, driven by the production of battery materials, with significant increases in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [3] Supply Analysis - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials showed mixed results: spodumene production increased by 5%, while lithium mica decreased by 15%, and salt lake production rose by 10% [1] - Cumulative lithium carbonate production from January to September reached 643,700 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite potential disruptions in the Jiangxi Yichun mining area, new capacities from spodumene and salt lakes are expected to push October production close to 90,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - The production of lithium iron phosphate in September was 356,800 tons, reflecting a 12.8% month-on-month and a 42% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in October [3] - Ternary material production in September was 75,000 tons, showing a 2.6% month-on-month and a 31.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The overall production of power batteries and other batteries in September increased by 50% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 44% from January to September [3] Inventory and Market Trends - As of last week, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 132,700 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons, indicating an accelerated destocking process [4] - The number of registered futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, suggesting improved demand from downstream and traders [4] - The futures market shows signs of a potential rebound, with the main contract price breaking through the upper range of 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating a possibility of continued upward movement [4]