持续累库 氧化铝短期价格仍承压
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-24 01:27

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a weak price trend, with a focus on smelting cost support and the willingness of the smelting industry to reduce operating capacity in the future [1] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Demand - In September, China's bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%, but a month-on-month decrease of approximately 2.41 million tons, indicating a seasonal decline [1] - Cumulatively, 157 million tons of bauxite were imported in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with Guinea accounting for 118 million tons (40.3% increase) and Australia 27.71 million tons (5.4% decrease) [1] - As of October 17, domestic bauxite port inventory was 28.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 653,000 tons, indicating a high supply level [1] Group 2: Alumina Production and Inventory - Domestic alumina production capacity was 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.8 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.4 million tons [1] - The weekly alumina production as of October 17 was 1.861 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 852,900 tons, maintaining a supply surplus [1][3] - As of October 17, domestic alumina inventory was 4.639 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 63,000 tons, indicating ongoing accumulation since late May [3] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The FOB price for Australian alumina was $323 per ton as of October 17, unchanged from late September but down $45 from late August, reflecting a weaker overseas price trend [3] - The production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, with an average profit of 135.4 yuan per ton, indicating a continuous contraction in smelting profits since early August [3][6] - The expectation of further declines in alumina prices may lead to losses in high-cost regions, increasing the likelihood of voluntary production cuts in the smelting industry [3][8]