消费有望改善 玻璃不宜过度看空

Core Viewpoint - The float glass market is experiencing a decline in prices, reaching a new low in over three months, but the short-term downside is considered limited despite a weak fundamental outlook [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The float glass main contract prices have been continuously declining since late October, indicating a weak market sentiment [1]. - The production lines in the Shahe region are transitioning from self-produced coal gas to clean energy, which may lead to temporary supply contractions and affect market sentiment [2]. - The overall daily melting capacity of float glass in China has slightly increased, reaching 161,300 tons with an operating rate of 76.35% as of October 23, 2023 [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand from downstream processing enterprises is weak, with order volumes significantly down over 20% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The average order days for sample enterprises have decreased to 10.4 days, marking the lowest level since 2019 [4]. - Despite the current weak demand, there is potential for seasonal improvement in demand towards the end of Q4, driven by an increase in housing completion rates [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - The float glass industry is facing a supply surplus with inventory levels at a three-year high, leading to continued accumulation of stock [5]. - As of October 23, total inventory reached 66.613 million heavy boxes, up 3.64% from the previous period [5]. - The market is currently characterized by strong supply and weak demand, but the continued decline in prices may limit further downside risks [6].