甲苯：传统银十旺季难旺，价格一度跌至近五年低位

Core Viewpoint - The traditional demand peak season in October has not significantly boosted the toluene market, leading to prices dropping to near five-year lows due to weak supply-demand fundamentals and declining prices of related products [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic toluene production capacity is expected to expand significantly in 2025, with new facilities from various companies adding nearly 1.7 million tons, resulting in a continuously increasing supply [3]. - The supply side remains robust, with minimal maintenance shutdowns in October and an expected increase in port arrivals, contributing to a supply surplus that weakens price support [3][8]. - The overall supply growth, coupled with weak demand, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, putting downward pressure on prices [3][5]. Group 2: Demand Trends - As of September 2025, domestic gasoline shipping orders have decreased by approximately 8.67% year-on-year, indicating a persistent weak demand environment [5]. - The traditional peak season has not led to significant increases in demand from the refining sector, with overall oil adjustment demand remaining weak [5]. - Chemical sector demand is also insufficient, with many companies only maintaining essential procurement due to reduced profit margins from related products [5][8]. Group 3: Price Influences - Following the National Day holiday, toluene prices have continued to decline, with the Shandong market dropping below 5,000 yuan/ton, marking a new low since February 2021 [1][3]. - The decline in prices is influenced by falling crude oil prices and related products, which further depress market confidence [7]. - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in prices due to low levels attracting some buyers, with forecasts indicating possible price increases to around 4,900-5,000 yuan/ton in Shandong and 5,100-5,250 yuan/ton in Jiangsu [8].