京沪深高改业主，正在集体“出动”

Core Insights - The recent data on second-hand housing listings indicates a significant trend, with an increase in high-end properties priced between 8 million to 30 million yuan in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, showing month-on-month growth [1][7] - A "replacement action" for quality assets is quietly starting, reflecting a shift in owner sentiment and structural differentiation in the second-hand housing market [1][10] Group 1: Listing Data - In September, the total number of new second-hand housing listings in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou was 46,000, remaining stable compared to August [2] - Beijing had the highest monthly listing volume at 18,448 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [5][6] - Shenzhen's listings reached 6,654 units, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth exceeding 10% [5][6] - Shanghai's listings were 15,189 units, showing a slight month-on-month decline of 2% but a significant year-on-year increase of over 20% [5][6] - In contrast, Hangzhou experienced a notable decline in listings, with a month-on-month drop of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 41% [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-end property segment (8 million to 30 million yuan) is driving the increase in listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, with respective month-on-month growth rates of 0.57%, 0.66%, and 0.72% [7][10] - The market in Hangzhou is characterized by a cautious sentiment among owners, leading to a steady decline in listing activity [10] - The overall sentiment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with owners showing a stronger willingness to sell, while Hangzhou remains more reserved [10] Group 3: Structural Changes - The structural changes in the listing data indicate a shift towards larger properties, with an increase in listings for units over 140 square meters across the four cities [7][10] - The high-end market is expected to face competition from newly launched quality properties, which may impact the second-hand high-end market [10] - The ordinary housing market is experiencing a "price tug-of-war," with a large number of listings leading to extended transaction cycles for properties lacking significant price advantages [10]