?“全球资产定价之锚”来到临界点! 若9月CPI超预期 “股债双牛”叙事将遭遇重击

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for September is critical, as a higher-than-expected inflation reading could disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts and negatively impact both the stock and bond markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to CPI Data - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a key benchmark for global asset pricing, may rise significantly if the CPI data exceeds expectations, leading to a potential downturn in global equity and bond markets [3][9]. - Conversely, if the CPI indicates a more favorable inflation outlook, the 10-year Treasury yield could enter a new downward trend, potentially driving global stock markets to new highs [3][4]. - Current market sentiment is cautious, with investors anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29, but a surprising inflation report could undermine this expectation [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The anticipated CPI report is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.4% for overall CPI and 0.3% for core CPI, with year-over-year growth projected at 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [7]. - Recent trends in oil prices, particularly following sanctions on Russian oil producers, could influence inflation expectations, as rising oil prices may counteract previous declines in retail gasoline prices [8][9]. - The current U.S. inflation rate remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, leading to cautious sentiment among Fed officials regarding further rate cuts [7][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investment firms are advising caution, with some suggesting to exit long positions in U.S. Treasuries due to potential erosion of profits from the upcoming CPI data [10]. - There is a recommendation to position for potential upward surprises in inflation, indicating a shift in strategy among investors as they navigate the uncertain economic landscape [10].