基本面持续压制 铁矿石承压运行

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, iron ore prices have declined, with the main contract dropping from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.11%, indicating a return to the lower end of the fluctuation range [1] Supply Situation - The decline in iron ore prices is primarily due to several factors: weakened market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, reduced steel production leading to lower iron ore demand, and a weakening supply-demand balance reflected in increased port inventories [2] - Domestic port arrivals for iron ore were reported at 26.763 million tons, remaining high despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.678 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 17.711 million tons [2] - Global iron ore shipments reached 33.335 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2598 million tons, continuing to be at a high level for the year, and a year-on-year increase of 15.45% [2] Price Trends - The Platts iron ore price index averaged $105/ton in October, maintaining a relatively high level, while high prices have led to increased overseas shipments and high levels of floating inventory at sea [3] - Domestic mining production has also rebounded, further suppressing iron ore price trends [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand for iron ore has weakened, with poor performance in steel demand during the peak season, leading to reduced production by steel mills and a decline in iron ore consumption [4] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease, indicating that while demand has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level compared to the year [4] - The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, with only 55.41% of mills reporting profits, a decline of 12.99 percentage points over ten weeks, indicating ongoing challenges in the steel market [4][5] Overall Market Outlook - The iron ore market continues to face downward pressure due to high supply levels and unresolved industry conflicts in the steel market, leading to a weak demand outlook [6]