微盟集团(2013.HK)更新点评：积极推动与抖音合作 有望提振广告毛收入&业绩

Core Viewpoint - Micro Alliance Group announced a business collaboration with Douyin Group's digital marketing service platform, becoming a comprehensive advertising agency for Douyin and obtaining the Douyin Qianchuan service provider license, which is expected to drive long-term stable growth in marketing revenue and profits [1] Group 1: Business Collaboration - The partnership allows Micro Alliance to provide integrated solutions for brand merchants across multiple platforms under Douyin Group, including Toutiao, Douyin, and Xigua Video, enhancing marketing and operational capabilities [1] - In 2021, advertising revenue from Douyin reached approximately 3 billion yuan, and the collaboration is expected to significantly boost merchant solution revenue in 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - For 2025, the company anticipates advertising gross revenue of about 17 billion yuan, a slight decline due to the elimination of low-quality clients, but expects to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2026 driven by Douyin channel growth [2] - The net rebate rate improved from 2.1% to 3.85% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in rebate margins, with expectations for continued growth in merchant solution revenue and profit outpacing gross revenue growth [2] Group 3: SaaS Business and AI Investment - The SaaS business is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for positive growth in 2026, driven by AI-related product revenue of 34 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company secured a $200 million investment from Infini Capital, which will be used to enhance AI integration in SaaS, expand media channels, and develop overseas business opportunities [2] Group 4: Revenue Projections and Ratings - The company is adjusting its business structure by reducing low-margin operations and focusing on high-potential areas, maintaining revenue forecasts for 2025 while slightly increasing projections for 2026 and 2027 to 17.9 billion and 20.0 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating based on the expected incremental benefits from the collaboration with Douyin [2]