SHANXI SECURITIES(SZ:002500) 智通财经网·2025-10-24 03:58Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Shanxi Securities predicts that the performance in Q4 may exceed that of Q3, indicating that the coal sector has investment value due to expected demand recovery and supportive pricing [1] - During the peak summer period, coal prices have risen unexpectedly, but the long-term contracts' price discrepancies have been resolved, leading to a continued recovery in sales expected until Q4 [1] - The overall valuation of the coal sector is currently low, and with a shift in market style, there is potential for a rebound in coal prices, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in this sector [1] Group 2 - The trend of shrinking import coal volume continues to slow down, with a cumulative import coal volume from January to September showing a decrease of 11.1%, although the negative growth rate is marginally easing [1] - In September, the import coal price was $68 per ton, maintaining a downward trend year-on-year, but showing a month-on-month increase of $2.05 [1] - Domestic coal prices experienced fluctuations in September, with a slight increase in domestic raw coal production, but the domestic supply gap still supports the demand for imported coal [2] Group 3 - The price gap between domestic and imported coal is expected to continue to widen, driven by domestic demand influencing overseas prices, with most coal types showing a month-on-month increase in September [3] - The "anti-involution" policies are contributing to a rise in domestic coal prices in October, exceeding market expectations and the increase in imported coal prices, which may further boost import volumes [3]