黄金，陷入震荡中！

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is characterized by a conflict between emotions and rationality, with prices reflecting this imbalance as they have surged by $1200 in three months, showcasing extremes of "greed and fear" and the harsh collision of "expectations and reality" [1] Market Dynamics - The $4180 level serves as a critical dividing line, representing both a technical resistance and a pivotal point for market logic reconstruction [2] - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations leading to a revaluation of gold's monetary attributes [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, have amplified gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, while central banks have been net buyers of gold for 18 consecutive months, reinforcing the upward trend from a supply-demand perspective [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment has shifted from cautious exploration to fervent chasing of prices, with the RSI indicator surpassing the 80 threshold, indicating that gold prices have detached from fundamental support [2] - The recent price adjustment is seen as a necessary technical correction rather than a trend reversal, as the market structure has changed with the price nearing historical highs of $4400, triggering stop-loss orders and profit-taking by institutional investors [2] Current Market Conditions - The market is currently in an "information black hole" due to the U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, leading to increased divergence in investor judgments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] - Despite the short-term pullback, global gold ETFs continue to see net inflows, and retail investor positions have not reached historical peaks, suggesting that market sentiment has not yet become overly heated [3] Short-term Outlook - In the short term, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern centered around $4180, with potential support at $4000 if prices break below $4180 [5] - A sustained breakout above $4180 and a move past $4400 could initiate a new upward trend, while the market awaits new catalysts such as shifts in Federal Reserve policy or escalations in geopolitical conflicts [5] - The strategy for investors is to engage in high selling and low buying within the $4180-$4000 range, while remaining vigilant for potential data shocks following the end of the U.S. government shutdown and sudden easing of geopolitical tensions [5]