日本CPI加速，加息时机仍存争议

Core Insights - Japan's September inflation data exceeded expectations, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year, maintaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, adding pressure for interest rate hikes in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Despite persistent inflation, there is a division within the Bank of Japan regarding the timing of interest rate hikes, with most analysts expecting the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% during the next meeting [1][4] - The new Prime Minister emphasized the government's ultimate responsibility for economic policy and the importance of close coordination with the central bank [1] Inflation Drivers - The acceleration in inflation is primarily driven by rising energy costs and ongoing increases in food prices, with food prices (excluding fresh items) rising 7.6% year-on-year [2] - The core inflation measure, excluding fresh food and fuel costs, rose 3.0% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.3% in August [2] - Service prices increased by 1.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 4.2% increase in goods prices, indicating that businesses are gradually passing on higher labor costs [2] Economic Growth Concerns - Despite ongoing inflation, economic data indicates a weakening growth momentum, with the latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showing further loss of momentum in the private sector for October [2] - The manufacturing sector remains in contraction, while the service sector, although a key growth driver, is showing signs of slowing momentum [2] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's policymakers may prefer to wait for more robust economic signals before taking action, with recent statements reflecting caution regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy [3][4] - The central bank exited a decade-long aggressive stimulus plan last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, believing Japan is nearing a sustainable 2% inflation target [4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor emphasized the need for sustainable inflation driven by strong domestic demand and wage growth before resuming the rate hike cycle [5] - While most economists and investors expect the central bank to maintain rates next week, the persistent inflation above target and increasing internal divisions within the bank are raising expectations for future rate hikes [5]