Ge Long Hui·2025-10-24 04:40Core Insights - Zijin Mining's revenue and net profit showed significant growth in 1–3Q25, with revenue increasing by 10.33% YoY to Rmb254.2 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 55.45% YoY to Rmb37.86 billion [1] - In 3Q25, the company experienced a 2.58% QoQ decline in revenue to Rmb86.49 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 11.02% QoQ to Rmb14.57 billion, driven by higher-than-expected non-recurring income [1] Revenue and Profit Trends - The firm's earnings growth was attributed to rising sales volume and higher product prices, with copper prices increasing by 2.1% QoQ to Rmb79,785 per ton in 3Q25 [2] - Mined copper output decreased by 16,200 tons QoQ to 263,100 tons in 3Q25, primarily due to the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's impact [2] - Mined gold prices rose by 3% QoQ to Rmb793 per gram, with gold output increasing by 1.6 tons QoQ to 23.8 tons in 3Q25 [3] - Zinc prices fell by 1.6% QoQ to Rmb22,000 per ton, while zinc output remained stable at approximately 91,500 tons in 3Q25 [4] Project Developments - The first phase of the lithium mine commenced operations at the end of 3Q25, with expectations for the second phase of the Julong mine project to start production by the end of 2025 [5] - The company acquired controlling stakes in Zangge Mining and the Shapinggou molybdenum mine, enhancing its resource portfolio [5] - Zijin Gold International was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30, which is expected to improve the valuation of the firm's overseas gold assets [5] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Due to higher-than-expected non-recurring income and increased copper and gold prices, the company's 2025 and 2026 attributable net profit forecasts were raised by 11.2% and 18.8% to Rmb50.91 billion and Rmb65.09 billion, respectively [5] - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares were increased by 31% and 33% to Rmb38 and HK$40, respectively, reflecting rising average valuations in the mineral resource sector [5] - A-shares are currently trading at 15.5x 2025e and 12.1x 2026e P/E, while H-shares are at 15.5x 2025e and 12.0x 2026e P/E, with target prices implying significant upside potential [5]