Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-24 05:45Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is steadily losing momentum, as indicated by various financial institutions and private sector data, despite the suspension of official data releases due to government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - Multiple financial giants, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Carlyle Group, have independently confirmed a cooling labor market, providing critical insights beyond official data [2]. - Goldman Sachs' labor market tightness index has returned to levels seen in 2015, suggesting a more challenging environment for job seekers [2]. - Bank of America has identified new evidence of rising unemployment and slowing job growth through analysis of client salary and deposit data [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Job Growth Slowdown - Goldman Sachs attributes a slowdown of approximately 100,000 jobs to three main factors: reduced immigration, decreased government hiring, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty [3][4]. - Immigration contributions to monthly labor growth have declined from 90,000 at the beginning of the year to 40,000 by August, indicating a slowdown in labor supply growth [4]. - Government hiring has decreased, leading to a reduction in overall salary growth by about 30,000 jobs, compounded by a significant drop in federal contract spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact - Companies are increasingly cautious in hiring decisions due to macroeconomic risks and trade uncertainties, with some firms cutting back on recruitment as a cost-saving measure in response to tariffs [5]. - Although tariffs have a limited direct impact on hiring, the associated uncertainty correlates with a decline in overall employment growth in affected industries [5]. Group 4: AI's Limited Impact - Despite discussions around AI replacing human jobs, current evidence suggests that AI's influence on the broader labor market is minimal, with specific sectors like marketing and design experiencing localized slowdowns [6].