Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-24 06:01Core Viewpoint - The shipping decarbonization policies from IMO and the EU are becoming more frequent, marking the transition of shipping decarbonization into a practical phase, with low-carbon fuel materials entering a favorable market environment [1][2] Group 1: Policy Developments - The EU will include the shipping industry in its carbon market starting in 2024, imposing fines of 100 EURO/tCO2e for non-compliance, and requires a 2% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025 and an 80% reduction by 2050, with penalties of 642 EURO/tCO2e for violations [2] - The IMO has proposed a net-zero strategy by 2050 and approved a net-zero framework draft in April 2025, establishing a unified carbon price of $380 or $100/tCO2e to significantly promote shipping decarbonization [2] - China is initiating green fuel pilot projects and has set a target for zero net emissions (ZNZ) usage of 5-10% by 2030, with compliance costs expected to drive ZNZ demand [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to DNV's statistics as of August 2025, the demand for biodiesel, LNG, and green methanol is projected to be approximately 200 million tons, 40 million tons, and 6 million tons respectively, while the supply of ship fuel is only 70,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 10,000 tons, indicating a severe shortage of low-carbon fuel supply [2] - The compliance costs in the EU are higher than those under the IMO framework and are expected to increase annually, with projected costs for 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050 being $741, $953, $1649, and $3014 per ton respectively, compared to $525, $583, and $1362 per ton under the IMO framework [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Biodiesel is identified as a core decarbonization measure for existing vessels, with a significant increase in biodiesel refueling at Singapore ports since 2022, reflecting a growing demand [3] - The demand for renewable natural gas (RNG) is expected to surge, driven by the IMO's net-zero framework and the potential for green premiums, with historical RNG development being slow due to high costs [4] - The number of methanol ships is rapidly increasing, with current estimates of 406 ships corresponding to a demand of over 800,000 tons of methanol, while global green methanol production capacity is expected to be only 124,000 tons by the end of 2025 [5]