9月债市迎来新变化

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of September 2025, foreign institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody volume [1] - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of foreign institutions entering the market, with 11 out of 15 new entrants in the third quarter joining in September [3] - A new policy allowing foreign investors to engage in bond repurchase transactions was introduced, enhancing the openness of the bond market and improving liquidity [6][8] Group 1: Foreign Investment in Bond Market - As of September 2025, foreign institutions held 2.00 trillion yuan in government bonds, 0.86 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.77 trillion yuan in policy financial bonds [1][3] - The number of foreign institutions participating in the interbank bond market reached 1,176, with 612 entering through settlement agency channels and 837 through the "Bond Connect" [1] - In September, the trading volume of foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was approximately 0.96 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of about 41.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The trading volume of foreign institutions in September showed a slight decline to 0.83 trillion yuan from 0.87 trillion yuan in August, indicating a limited contraction in overall scale [3] - Commercial banks maintained a dominant position in the bond market, with a trading scale of 24.46 trillion yuan in September, while securities companies saw a decrease in trading volume [5] - The introduction of the bond repurchase business is expected to attract more foreign capital into the domestic market, enhancing the efficiency of RMB bond assets [8][9] Group 3: Impact of New Policies - The new policy allows foreign institutions to conduct bond repurchase transactions, which is expected to reduce transaction friction and enhance the willingness of foreign institutions to hold bonds [8] - The repurchase mechanism is anticipated to increase trading volume in the short term and promote a transition from scale expansion to mechanism maturity in the domestic bond market [9] - The diversification of participants in the market is expected to lead to more trading strategies and reduce market risk concentration [8][9]