日本央行：9月核心CPI涨2.9%，加息时机仍存分歧

Core Insights - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the central bank's target for the third consecutive year, driven by energy and food prices [1] - The inflation data has accelerated beyond expectations, increasing pressure for a rate hike in the upcoming policy meeting [1] - The Bank of Japan's internal concerns about inflation risks have risen, with two members proposing a rate increase to 0.75% during the September meeting, marking the first hawkish voices [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core CPI, excluding fresh food, increased to 2.9% in September from 2.7% in August, aligning with expectations [1] - Food prices, excluding fresh items, surged by 7.6% year-on-year, while the core indicator rose by 3.0%, showing a slowdown compared to August [1] - Service sector price increases are significantly lower than those of goods [1] Economic Growth and Central Bank Stance - Despite ongoing inflation, growth momentum is weakening, with private sector growth losing steam in October, manufacturing contracting, and service sector momentum diminishing [1] - The Bank of Japan remains cautious, expressing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - The central bank exited its aggressive stimulus plan last year and raised rates to 0.5% in January, with Governor Ueda emphasizing the need for sustainable inflation before further rate hikes [1] Market Expectations - Most analysts and investors anticipate that the central bank will maintain the current interest rate, but the inflation exceeding targets and internal divisions have heightened expectations for a rate hike, potentially delaying the next increase until January next year [1]